Saturday, January 20, 2007

It's getting crowded

Get the feeling that when the first presidential debates are held for each party that there will be more candidates on the stage than people in the audience. Brownback. McCain. Richardson. Dodd. Obama. Add a Clinton to the list.

Hillary Clinton takes first step for 2008 race

Normally the Pilgrim doesn't deal in horserace politics. Focusing on the issues is what matters. Clinton is a unique case, however.

Putting it bluntly: she could be the nominee, but she cannot win the general election. In poll after poll her negatives are simply too high.

Think about the last 2 elections. In 2000, Gore won the popular vote narrowly, and Bush won the electoral vote narrowly. In 2004, Bush won both narrowly (Ohio could have changed the outcome). The nation is virtually 50-50.

Hillary has negative ratings in the 30% range- even 40% range. That is unfair, but it is reality. She simply has too much baggage to carry.

Remember that whatever negative numbers a candidate enters the race with, that number will go higher due to negative ads. And nobody will bring out the attack ads like Hillary. The Right, simply put, hates her, her husband, and what they are presumed to stand for. They will show no restraint.

Too many Americans who might be open to other Democrats simply will not consider a vote for Hillary Clinton. A Hillary campaign may be fun for the media, and may be fun for the purposes of speculation (what will Bill be called? First Man. First Philanderer?). And, given that the nation is 50-50, the election will be close. She won't win, however. If the Democrats want to win and not just put in a good showing (again), then they will need to look to another candidate.

1 comment:

Barbara Blog's said...

This is a Great Story. I wrote something about it - -Who And Where Is Dennis Fritz, You say after reading John Grisham's Wonderful Book "The Innocent man", Grisham's First non-fiction book. The Other Innocent Man hardly mentioned in "The Innocent Man" has his own compelling and fascinating story to tell in "Journey Toward Justice". John Grisham endorsed Dennis Fritz's Book on the Front Cover. Dennis Fritz wrote his Book Published by Seven Locks Press, to bring awareness about False Convictions, and The Death Penalty. "Journey Toward Justice" is a testimony to the Triumph of the Human Spirit and is a Stunning and Shocking Memoir. Dennis Fritz was wrongfully convicted of murder after a swift trail. The only thing that saved him from the Death Penalty was a lone vote from a juror. "The Innocent Man" by John Grisham is all about Ronnie Williamson, Dennis Fritz's was his co-defendant. Ronnie Williamson was sentenced to the Death Penalty. Both were exonerated after spending 12 years in prison. Both Freed by a simple DNA test, The real killer was one of the Prosecution's Key Witness. John Grisham's "The Innocent Man" tells half the story. Dennis Fritz's Story needs to be heard. Read about how he wrote hundreds of letters and appellate briefs in his own defense and immersed himself in an intense study of law. He was a school teacher and a ordinary man from Ada Oklahoma, whose wife was brutally murdered in 1975. On May 8, 1987 while raising his young daughter alone, he was put under arrest and on his way to jail on charges of rape and murder. Since then, it has been a long hard road filled with twist and turns. Dennis Fritz is now on his "Journey Toward Justice". He never blamed the Lord and soley relied on his faith in God to make it through. He waited for God's time and never gave up.