Controversial Findings

A recent study published by Johns Hopkins University has found that somewhere near 655,000 Iraqis have died since the US invasion in March, 2003.

You can read the entire report here. An appendix with methodology can be found here.

I'm not prepared to assert an opinion about the study. I think we need to know more. For now, I'm dubious.

First, this finding is about 10 times the number that even most war critics report. The highest estimate I had seen previously was approximately 100,000- 1/6 the result of the present study.

Second, according to the Washington Post, "This is about 500 unexpected violent deaths per day throughout the country." That is an average. I have never heard of a single day where 500 deaths were reported- except perhaps during the initial invasion itself. In terms of the insurgency and terrorist acts and US military activities- I don't recall a day with a death toll so high, and certainly not sufficient numbers of days to make 500 the average.

Third, as a student of the American civil war, in which approximately 600,000 Americans died, I have read about battles in which thousands of lives were lost- sometimes in mere minutes. I have heard of nothing of that scale happening in Iraq. In other words, I just don't see events likely to yeild the sort of result the study finds.

That said, I suspect the number of dead is higher than the 40,000 to 60,000 commonly reported- and certainly higher than the 30,000 number the President sticks to. Why? Because those numbers are generally based upon body counts, and people who are injured and die later may not be included in those counts. Also because of the cultural tradition of having quick burials in the region getting accurate counts may be difficult. And, finally and perhaps most importantly, because no governmental or military agencies- US or Iraqi- have an interest in allowing high counts to become common knowledge. Supression of statistics is where the incentive is to be found.

I think that we in America do not know how many Iraqi civilians have been killed by military activities or by sectarian violence. Much of that is because, I fear, most Americans would not really want to know. The Iraqi death toll is high enough to reflect poorly on our policy in Iraq, and in our decision to invade that country.

For example, a more reliable statistic would be as follows:

2,660 Iraqi civilians killed in September...an increase of 400 over the month before, according to figures from the Iraqi Health Ministry....By comparison, 2,222 people died violently in August in Baghdad, according to a U.N. report published in September, which is also based on official statistics from the Health Ministry.The deadliest month was July, when 3,590 people were killed across the country — 2,884 of them in Baghdad, according to the U.N. The number killed countrywide fell in August to 3,009, the U.N. said.

If every month were like that worst month, then approximately 158,000 Iraqis would have died in violence since the US invasion (again showing why I find the 655,000 number to be improbable). Of course every month has not been like that worst month, which is why I believe the 100,000 figure, plus or minus, is a more reliable one. And a devastating one in terms of evaluating US policy. In terms of life and death, can the average Iraqi feel more safe now than they did under Saddam?

The death in Iraq demonstrates a broken promise from the Bush Administration to the Iraqi people. He promised them the safety and security that comes with freedom. He has given them none of the above. How thrilled the Iraqis must be to hear that the US Army is developing plans to stay in Iraq until 2010.

That way the US can continue to bring them 'none of the above' for another 4 years.

GP